Odisha was one of the first states in India to prepare a comprehensive and truly consultative state action plan on climate change by inviting diverse stakeholders in 2013-’14. Though there are no commitments towards net zero, the Government of Odisha has been actively involved in taking further steps towards climate change adaptation and mitigation due to the State’s geography resulting in increased vulnerability.
In furtherance of this commitment, the Odisha State Action Plan on Climate Change (Phase-II) (SAPCC) was launched in 2018. The SAPCC focuses on adaptation and mitigation plans for the State, focusing on harmonising the high frequency of climate events with development goals. It depends heavily on its coal reserves to continue its growth streak.
The steps to transitioning into a net zero economy, particularly in a developing country like India, should be conscious of the inequitable burdens carried by vulnerable communities. Eliminating and mitigating carbon emissions should not be at the cost of increased harm to these communities. This aspect of a just transition is explored by analysing the various opportunities unique to Odisha. We identify that investing further in the renewable energy sector is imperative to the State. It can also add additional value to the economy with better employment and entrepreneurial opportunities.
As a rapidly industrialising state, the shift towards net zero requires close cooperation between the State, the industries, and local communities. The Mangrove species diversity in Odisha is among the highest in the world. This makes it highly ecologically sensitive, but also a global resource for research on mangroves and their climate change-related functions. Community engagement in Odisha follows a pattern different from most other states due to its minimal urbanisation. It is important to include vulnerable communities in rural areas and the increasing populations in urban slums while designing policy measures. Finally, it suggests policy suggestions and implementable solutions to accelerate Odisha’s journey towards a commitment to becoming a Net Zero State. It analyses existing plans and measures to present a more just and democratic approach to designing Odisha’s climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies while contributing to INDC targets.
The state of Odisha has traditionally been particularly prone to extreme climate events. Various hazards such as cyclones, droughts, and floods have been recurring in the State due to its geographical location on India’s east coast as well as its climatic characteristics. However, due to the State’s erratic weather patterns, Odisha faces an increased probability of experiencing climatic turmoil. Odisha was one of the first states in India to prepare a comprehensive and truly consultative state action plan on climate change (SAPCC 2013-14) by inviting diverse stakeholders. Odisha faces both a seaside and hinterland effect regarding intraday and seasonal temperature variation (Odisha climate change action plan (SAPCC 2018-23). SAPCC 2018-23 highlights some major climatic issues concerning various sectors and assists in programming the resources of the concerned Departments such that the impact of climate change can be minimised.
The SAPCC prioritizes the following sectors through its five-year action plan matrix.
The multi-sectoral focus proves necessary for a heavily industrialised state like Odisha. This could also enable more inclusive and well-thought-out policymaking, as climate change remains an omnipresent challenge. Even with such a multi-sectoral focus, the SAPCC interlinks State and Union policy, and presents sectoral goals to be linked to other sectors through a co-benefits approach. It is a practical implementation of just transition, a major focus of this information package. The SAPCC also considers the difference in the gendered experience of climate change, vouching to integrate gender concerns in the various sectors under the climate action plan.
Before evaluating how Odisha can meet this goal, this document provides a quick assessment of the current climate profile of the state and the directly impacted sectors. Understanding the context in which these policy decisions will operate while ushering in a Net Zero future for the state is imperative. The methods explored will be that of a ‘just transition,’ wherein the transition from a fossil fuel-based economy to renewable energy or a green economy occurs while the benefits accruing out of the same are distributed to all, and no group is adversely affected as a consequence of the same. In addition, the document will also navigate the opportunities for innovation, employment, and growth available to the State in this transition process. Finally, natural resource-dependent communities, their contribution, and protection will be highlighted and aligned with India’s Nationally Determined Contributions discourse.
I. Odisha and Climate Change:
The ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in India Using a Common Framework,’ which identifies the most vulnerable states and districts in India concerning current climate risk and key drivers of vulnerability, ranked Odisha as a highly vulnerable state, with a vulnerability index 0.633. The Odisha State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) predicts that the State could have climate-related events of higher intensity in the coming years. The State needs to prioritize adaptation interventions to ensure that it is immune from the all-pervasive impacts of climate change. Here is a brief assessment of the impact climate change has had. It is projected to impact the State, its natural resources, people, and their livelihood:
a. Agriculture:
Approximately 76% of the people in Odisha are engaged in agricultural activities. Of a cultivated area of 87,46,000 hectares, 18,79,000 are under irrigation. In addition to producing a large amount of rice, Odisha is a major producer of jute, oil seeds, pulses, coconut, mesta, sugarcane, tea, rubber, cotton, gram, mustard, maize, sesame, ragi, potato, soybean. Cuttack, Dhenkanal, Baleshwar, and Sambalpur are the main centers of agriculture in the state. However, Odisha State Disaster Management Authority warns that the agriculture sector is becoming dangerously vulnerable with the increased frequency of extreme climate events.
Odisha has four zones—coastal plains, central tableland, northern plateau, and eastern ghats—further subdivided into ten agro-climatic zones. The State’s climate is tropical, characterised by high temperatures, high humidity, medium to high rainfall, and short and mild winters. The State usually receives rainfall of around 1451.2 mm. However, it suffers from frequent natural calamities such as cyclones, droughts, and flash floods. Odisha has seen many devastating cyclones attributable to climate change that has impacted agriculture. Climatic variables act as direct inputs in agricultural production and other inputs such as land, water, fertilizer, pesticides, etc. However, climatic variables became more pronounced in agricultural regions, which are backward or primitive with less scope for technological adoption and transmission.
b. Fisheries:
Odisha has the sixth-largest coastline in India and third largest fisherfolk population. It still stands eighth in marine fish production due to the lack of infrastructure. The estimated marine fish landings from Odisha for 2021 was 1.80 lakh tonnes, recording a nearly 3% increase compared to the 2020 landings.
Lower accessibility to mechanised fishing crafts and fuel bunks, technical illiteracy, poor socioeconomic conditions inferred from low per capita income, and high debt level further exacerbate this problem. (CMFRI 1987; Nayak and Mishra 2008; Government Of Odisha 2015). Moreover, fishers are often forced to dispose-off their catch to the middlemen on the lower coast due to the need for a sound market system. As per a recent report (OXFAM India 2017), the emergence of extreme weather events, e.g., tropical cyclones, and storm surges, occur almost every year in Odisha as the state is vulnerable to climate change and is located in the cyclone-prone regions in India, contributing towards the backwardness of the Odiya fishing community. The influence of heating in the Pacific Ocean has been shown to accelerate warming across the North Indian Ocean (Cheng et al. 2021). This could, in turn, have compounding adverse effects on the vulnerable coasts of Odisha.
c. Water Resources
Many large and minor rivers flow through the state of Odisha, and all the rivers end in the Bay of Bengal. Mahanadi is the biggest river, It originates at the Amarkantak plateau of Madhya Pradesh, and traverses a length of 858 km. Besides Mahanadi, other rivers like Subamarekha, Budhabalanga, Baitarani, Brahmani, Rushikulya, and Bansadhara are present in the states.
The state has a network of dams used for Hydroelectricity generation and irrigation purposes. Hirakud dam at Burla, Sambalpur, and Indravati dam at Jeypore are constructed on the river Mahanadi. The river forms a delta at Cuttack from which many subsidiary rivers like Kathjodi, Kuakhia, Birupa, etc. originate. There are two big lakes, namely Chilika and Ansupa, in the state. These lakes provide a variety of fish catches. , and are major tourist attractions.
Odisha has been going through water scarcity, drought, floods, groundwater depletion, and much more. Groundwater abstraction has increased tremendously in Odisha, where it increased from 30% to 42% in the four years between 2013 and 2017. But there is a reduction in annual groundwater recharge and a considerable depletion in the annual extractable groundwater resources. According to the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), Odisha’s groundwater volume was estimated at 16.69 billion cubic meters in 2009. In 2017, Odisha’s groundwater volume dropped to 15.57 billion cubic meters, leading to a loss of 1.12 billion cubic meters (6.71%) of groundwater. The CGWB has reported that the groundwater in 24 out of 30 districts in Odisha is rapidly depleting. Many groundwater aquifers in many regions of Odisha have already dried up.
Some 1,093 million liters of drinking water are supplied to urban areas in the state against the daily demand of 1,088 million liters. This is leading to immense pressure on the state’s water resources. The groundwater level in the greater Bhubaneswar area (Bhubaneswar city and outskirts/peripherals) has been reduced by about 10 metres since 2006, and water consumption has doubled in the last ten years. This has been due to the large-scale extraction of groundwater to cater to the daily demand of Bhubaneswar. The state development planrelies heavily on groundwater for water supply to thepopulation and irrigationof the drought-prone areas of the Kalahandi-Bolangir-Koraput (KBK) region.
d. Livestock
In Odisha, livestock is an important economic activity only next to crop farming, with over 80% of the rural population owning livestock, which generates up to 30% of their income. Although crop production is the principal activity, livestock is an essential secondary income source for many small-scale, marginal and landless farmers, who may own only a few animals. The Odisha livestock master plan will help the Odisha government further modernise the sector so that it can improve the objectives and outcomes of the livestock farmers.
e. Rainfall and Floods
According to a study by Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), India’s cyclone district hotspots include Puri, Chennai, Nellore, Ganjam, Cuttack, East Godavari, and Srikakulam. The rainfall has high temporal and spatial variability due to the impact of climate changes. There are significant changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability, as well as in the intensity and frequencies of extreme rainfall events in the State. In 2019, out of the 30 districts in Odisha, 29 received deficient rainfall, and only Koraput district recorded one % surplus precipitation. In nine districts, the rain deficit has been measured to be over 40%. Balasore was the worst hit, with 54% deficit rainfall, and the 26 districts had a deficit above 19%.
In Odisha, damages are caused due to floods, mainly in the areas around Mahanadi, the Brahmani, and the Baitarani. In the same delta between these rivers, flood waters mix and cause significant damage when they occur concurrently. When floods and high tides occur together, the problem is made considerably worse. A deposit of silt on the riverbed causes the water level to rise. River banks frequently flood, or water rushes through newly formed channels, both of which cause significant damage. Floods and drainage congestion also affects the lower reaches along the Subarnarekha. The rivers Rusikulya, Vansadhara, and Budhabalanga also cause occasional floods. Flood water entered villages in coastal districts of Odisha, affecting 9.5 lakh people in 2022. Low-lying areas of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Cuttack, and Puri were hit by the floodwater flowing in the Mahanadi River.
f. Drought:
Odisha suffered drought in the wake of a prolonged dry spell triggered by a severe deficient rainfall in the 2021 monsoon, the worst in the past two decades. Farming activities have been badly hit across the state, which received only 661.1 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in 2021 against a normal of 935.8 mm, a shortfall of 29%.
The Odisha State Disaster Management Authority estimates that droughts often occur in Odisha once every five years. Odisha’s kharif season is typically when drought strikes, which mainly harms the paddy crops. The state’s 47 blocks in Bolangir, Bargarh, Nuapada, Kalahandi, and Phulbani have been classified as drought-prone areas. This rampant deficiency in rainfall across the Adivasi-dominated state adversely affects agricultural activities during the peak kharif farming. Almost 74% of the state’s cropland is rainfed, implying that irrigation relies on rainfall. According to Odisha Agriculture Statistics, 2018-19, nearly 60% of an estimated 46 million people in the state earn their livelihood through agriculture and allied activities.
These issues have been exacerbated by the patchy coverage in irrigated areas. The effects of drought can be seen in the severe decline in agricultural output and farm incomes, the reduction of rural job prospects, and the widespread immigration of farmers, farmworkers, artisans, and small-scale rural businesses.
g. Temperature
According to the India Climate Prospectus study, a collaborative effort by the University of Chicago, Climate Impact Lab, and Tata Centre for Development (TCD), Odisha might become India’s hottest State by 2100 if mitigation steps are not immediately adopted. With over 52 coal-fired thermal power plants already – and scores more lined up in the days ahead – there is no question that GHG emissions are a major contributor to the rising temperatures in Odisha. With its enormous deposits of coal, the Angul-Talcher mining belt, in particular, is a major contributor to the rising temperature in the State. As a State with enormous natural resources on the threshold of emerging as a major industrial hub, Odisha is at a greater risk of suffering the effects of climate change and global warming than other states. However, it has the opportunity to make sure that the State’s industrial expansion does not threaten the lives of its citizens by severely harming the environment.
h. Coastal Ecosystems
Odisha has a 480 km long coastline, approximately 8% of the total Indian coastline. The available exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for the State is about 0.17 sq. km which is around 8.4% of the country’s EEZ and is considered highly fertile for breeding marine fish (Government of Orissa 2010).
According to the National Centre for Coastal Research, Odisha lost 28 % of its 485-km-long coastline between 1999 and 2016 to seawater intrusion. CEEW analysis found that Kendrapara district has recorded a 3X and 2X increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme floods and cyclones since 2000.
i. Cyclones
Odisha has faced the wrath of cyclones almost every year. The list of these natural disasters is undoubtedly long. The Super cyclone of 1999 is still the deadliest of the lot. The list of cyclones that have struck Odisha since Super Cyclone 1999 is provided below.
1. 1999 Super Cyclone: The most damaging Super Cyclone by far battered Odisha on October 29, 1999. The state faced the 1999 super cyclone, which killed 10,000 people, affecting 15 million people and causing damage worth USD 2.5 billion. Large portions of the shoreline were submerged. Life and property were destroyed or severely damaged by the cyclone in coastal districts like Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, and Ganjam.
2.Cyclone Phailin: This strong cyclone made landfall in the state in 2013. It made landfall in the district of Ganjam close to Gopalpur. Massive damage was done to the transportation, communication, and power supply systems. Twelve southern and coastal regions, totaling 14,514 villages, were impacted. Ganjam, Puri, and Khurda districts in Odisha were the most severely impacted. Over five lakh hectares of standing crops have been destroyed by the gushing waters causing an estimated loss of Rs 2,400 crore.
3. Cyclone Hudhud: On October 12, 2014, this cyclone made landfall on Visakhapatnam’s eastern shore. Many areas of Odisha were severely impacted by the cyclone. Strong gale winds and heavy to extremely heavy rain from Hudhud caused extensive structural damage in North Andhra Pradesh and nearby districts on the South Odisha coast. Over 248,000 people in 320 villages were reportedly affected, and 22 individuals were killed, according to government and media reports. India incurred $ 27 billion of economic losses, at least 45 % of the Asia-Pacific region’s total losses.
4. Cyclone Titli: In the second week of October, 2018, cyclonic storm “Titli” made landfall on the southwest coast of Gopalpur near Palasa in Andhra Pradesh. The cyclone had an overall impact on eight districts in Odisha, including Ganjam, Gajapati, Khordha, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, and Balasore. It had caused extensive damage as it unexpectedly changed its course and entered the Gajapati district. Ganjam, Gajapati, and Puri districts experienced heavy to extremely high rains due to Cyclone “Titli.” The total affected population was almost 12.5 lakh spread across 872 villages, and 40,000 houses worth more than Rs 400 crore were destroyed by cyclone Titli. Over 60 persons were killed by Titli and the subsequent flooding and landslides.
5. Cyclone Fani: On May 3, 2019, The extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani hit the Odisha coast in Puri with a wind speed of around 175 kmph. The extent of damage due to Fani was estimated to be over Rs 11,942 crore. The cyclone caused massive destruction to forests and the environment. According to government sources, Fani had killed 64 people and affected 140,000 hectares of the crop area.
6. Cyclone Bulbul: It was the second cyclone in 2019. Though it made landfall near Sagar Island in West Bengal as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm on November 9, it caused extensive damage to agriculture in Odisha. The storm is said to have triggered losses between 15,000 and 19, 000 crores, as per official projections.
7. Cyclone Amphan: In May 2020, Cyclone Amphan barreled along the coast of Odisha before making landfall close to the Sunderbans in West Bengal. The strongest cyclone since the 1999 Super Cyclone, Cyclone Amphan was also the costliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Ocean. At least 44.45 lakh people in 9833 villages and 22 urban bodies had been impacted. It is estimated to be the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the North Indian Ocean, with economic losses amounting to about $14 billion, according to the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) report on the State of Global Climate.
8. Cyclone Yaas: Cyclone Yaas made landfall on May 26, 2021, in Odisha at Dhamra and south of Haldia in West Bengal. A total of 11,000 villages and 60 lakh people were affected, and the natural calamity cost Rs 610 crore.
9. Cyclone Gulab: Cyclone Gulab, the first tropical cyclone to form after the monsoon season, made landfall on September 26, 2021, around 6 p.m. Between Kalingapatnam and Gopalpur, the system has traversed coasts. It had an impact on the coasts of north and south Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha and accumulated damages of Rs 2,000 crore. 10.Cyclone Jawad: In December 2021, Odisha was spared from the fury of Cyclone Jawad after it weakened before making landfall. As the remnants of Cyclone Jawad hit the coast of Puri before re-curving to the north-northeast and reaching Paradip, heavy rain fell on the coastal regions of Odisha, and the State provided Rs 507 cr package for cyclone Jawad-affected farmers.
j. Mining
By 2030, Odisha, which is envisioned as India’s “steel capital,” would serve as the country’s main supplier of the 300 million tonnes (mt) of steel capacity. Odisha’s substantial mineral reserves account for 28 % of India’s total deposits of iron ore, 24 %, 59 % bauxite, and 98 % chromite, putting it in a prominent place on the country’s map. The mines of Odisha have a direct impact on both the Indian economy and global trade. Steel output in India is expected to quadruple with the aid of the Odisha mines by 2031, contributing around 2.1 % to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country, and during the next decade, its share should exceed three percent.
In 2019, India’s target was to grow annually at 12 percent over the next five years to a $5 trillion GDP by 2024. Odisha was to play a significantly dominant role in this unprecedented growth story. Odisha’s mining revenue has seen an uptick over the past few years. However, it has not yielded commensurate dividends to the larger public in Odisha. In the past three decades, less than one percent of Odisha has enjoyed abnormal affluence without creating new wealth.
k. People
Despite its riches, Odisha is reeling under an unemployment rate of 7.1 %, which is more than the national average of 6.1 %. Over 30% of the industry sector’s contribution comes from the extractive industry. There are more than 2,000 Project Affected Families in each coal block in Odisha (of which there are more than 31 operational blocks), making them the primary stakeholders. There would also be more than 10,000 secondary stakeholders. According to a FIDR study, at least half a million lives are associated with coal mining in Odisha. But with high unemployment, Odisha’s youths and households have yet to benefit. In addition, agricultural output is rapidly decreasing. Education and agriculture term loans constitute the state’s largest share of Non-Performing Assets in the State. Odisha is one of the best examples of how non-renewable natural resources are disproportionately crucial to poor and fragile economies, as they are their principal endowment and revenue source…..