In an unexpected announcement a fortnight ago, UN Secretary-General António Guterres sounded a dire alarm: “The era of global boiling has arrived.”His declaration echoed a sentiment underscored by scientists worldwide as July marked the hottest month ever documented on earth. Raging heat and climate change are not hypothetical theories anymore. The effects are being experienced across the globe.
Kerala, too, has reasons to worry. In the midst of what should be the final stage of the monsoon season, Malayalis are getting drenched in sweat. As if it’s peak summer. Contrary to predictions of ample rainfall, the state faces a deficit – less than 34 per cent of the seasonal average.
Erratic rainfall and heat waves are just one part of the problem. According to latest global digital projections from US-based NGO Climate Central, parts of central Kerala have been added to the high-risk zone vulnerable to a drastic rise in sea-level by 2050. The projections are based on an estimated surge in global temperature by 1.5 degrees C.
This warning amplifies concerns that several islands of Kochi, along with parts of Alappuzha, Kottayam and Thrissur, may go under sea level over the next three decades.Notably, Climate Central recently redeveloped its projection model based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on key coastal areas.A rise in sea level could mean submergence of Kochi’s beaches such as Munambam, Kuzhipilly, Cherai, Nayarambalam, Chendamangalam, Fort Kochi, and Chellanam.Let’s take a look at ground realities.
‘Unprecedented sea attacks’
Antony T S from Cheriyakadavu near Chellanam goes out for fishing in the sea every morning at 4 am.“I am 51, and the sea is not how it used to be during my younger days,” he says. “Now, there are more cyclones. Also, an increasing number of houses are getting destroyed in unprecedented sea attacks.”Antony says he started noticing the changes after the Tauktae cyclone of 2021.“Some of my neighbours have moved to other areas. They had no choice but accept the `10 lakh granted by the government and move. What can one do with that money?” he asks.
“One of them has purchased a small plot and is living in a makeshift shed with family. They have no money to build a house.”On fishing patterns, Antony says it is the season of ayala (mackerel) and kozhuva (anchovy). “It is not bad,” he remarks. “However, the low rainfall will affect the fish population. As rain decreases and the temperature rises, fish will move west. We will have to go farther into the sea for a good catch. But how far can we go in a boat?”Antony believes seawalls will be helpful against sea attacks. “I live between Chellanam and Kannamali. Chellanam has got some protection now, thanks to the newly constructed seawall. We hope our shore gets one, too,” he says.
‘Rising sea level’
Along with rising sea attacks, it is probable that many areas of Kochi and Alappuzha may go below sea level, says Basil Mathew, retired scientist from the Naval Physical and Oceanographic Laboratory, who is now working at Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies.
“There are two factors for this. With the temperature rise reaching 1.50C, ice caps in Antarctica will melt. Due to extreme heat, there will be thermal expansion, both adding to the volume of seawater,” he explains.
According to him, some countries are planning mitigation measures. “The Netherlands, for example… many parts of the country are just one metre above sea level,” he notes. “They have built a kind of barrier and also taken some other measures to protect their assets. However, they are very expensive and tough to replicate here.”
Basil believes that though there are many sceptics when it comes to global warming and climate change, the present scenario points to the contrary. “The past few years have been the warmest ever,” he says.“Not just rising sea levels, several extreme weather events are a result of global warming. The rising number of localised floods is an example. Look at Kerala, there has been no rain for a week now. And this is Karkidakam, the rainy month.”Kerala’s seasonal agriculture pattern might have to undergo a shift, adds Basil. “There will be changes in pest populations, too. We need an integrated study taking all factors and areas into account,” he says.
‘Look beyond temperature’
T V Sajeev, chief scientist at Kerala Forest Research Institute, says while most conversations focus on rising temperatures, there are associated phenomena that need attention.“Basically, the phenology of plants, the primary producers, is changing. We have a set time for when a tree blooms, when tender leaves will sprout, when it will produce fruits, etc. — a set yearly cycle of a plant. That has changed,” he explains.“This means the life cycle of all species depending on the plants will go haywire.”
For example, Sajeev adds, butterflies and moths lay eggs on tender leaves because the small larvae can only consume tender leaves. “If the tender leaves sprout earlier, by the time the moths lay eggs, leaves would be harder and larvae would die,” he says.“This means the small birds that eat these larvae would lose their food source. Larger birds and their babies eat these herbivorous birds, so they will also be left with inadequate food sources. So every species around the plants has to adapt to a new cycle to survive.”
Nature, Basil stresses, has a “balanced synchrony”. He fears that is getting affected now. “For example, monkeys need year-round food. We have seasonal fruits, so mammals like monkeys can find food year-round,” says the scientist.“This process will be scattered as plant phenology changes leading to the extinction of some species.”
Another issue is the migration of species as the temperature rises. As some species within the Western Ghats start moving upwards looking for cooler areas, the already existing ones in those mountain peaks will face food pressure. This process will also shatter the local ecosystems, some species will be edged out eventually.
‘Kochi has become an urban heat island’
Scientists believe there is a “peculiar situation in Kochi” as the city has turned into an “urban heat island”, or an urbanised area that experiences higher temperatures than outlying regions. Abhilash S, associate professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Cusat, notes extreme rainfall events – short, sporadic spells of intense showers – add to the issues the city is facing. One reason is the rising temperature in the city, he says. “Another thing we have observed is that, in the eastern Arabian Sea, the rain clouds that are forming have more depth,” he explains. “That is why there are instances of mini cloudbursts. These will be beyond the capacity of the existing drainage system of Kochi. So, we will have more urban flooding. This year we didn’t see much urban flooding due to the El Nino effect, which weakened the monsoons.”
Danger zones
In the long run, the sea level is predicted to rise by 2 to 3 metres, if the temperature rise peaks at its current 1.50C. If it peaks at 20C, the sea level would rise by 19-22 metres. Experts warn the temperature levels are rising faster due to global warming.