Recent studies have already predicted the sinking of the US Atlantic Coast by up to five millimeters per year, and coastal communities are anticipated to face 100-year floods annually, reported Interesting Engineering.
Now, a new study has also estimated that damage caused by rising sea levels could potentially cost the European Union’s and United Kingdom’s economies up to 872 billion euros in total by the end of the century, according to a new statement.
The study’s authors analyzed data from 271 European regions to estimate the economic consequences of sea-level rise by 2100.
This analysis was conducted under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), assuming the absence of new coastal protection measures implemented after 2015.
A statement by the researchers noted that they integrated a previously developed economic model with data on projected sea-level rise impacts, investment trends, and the distribution of economic losses caused by 155 flooding events across Europe between 1995 and 2016.
Upon conducting a thorough investigation, the results indicated potential economic losses and gains in contrast to a scenario where no sea level rise is observed.
This scenario further found that economies would experience a constant two percent rise if levels didn’t rise across all regions.
Experts also presented a model illustrating the impact of focused investment in various economic sectors on regional economies in the aftermath of sea-level rises.
The authors projected that under a high-emissions scenario, sea-level rises could lead to a total economic loss of 872 billion Euros across the UK and EU by 2100, as opposed to a scenario with no sea-level rises.
Regional variations in economic impacts due to sea-level rises were also noted, with the primary financial losses of up to 21 percent of regional gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100—concentrated in coastal areas like Veneto and Emilia-Romagna in Italy and Zachodniopomorskie in Poland, the statement emphasized.
“Other regions that incurred relatively higher economic losses were concentrated around the Baltic Sea, the Belgian coast, western France, and Greece,” said the statement.
In comparison, inland regions, including Germany, Austria, and Hungary, saw economic growth of up to one percent of regional GDP by 2100.
Researchers attributed responsibility for this to “production relocating from flooded coastal regions to inland regions.”
Researchers stated: “Although targeted investment in the logistics, public services, construction, and utilities sectors had negligible impacts on the UK and EU economy as a whole under a high emissions scenario, it did reduce some regional losses with a negligible cost to the overall UK and EU economy.”
The findings underscored the need for region-specific economic policies to address the uneven impacts of sea levels on different regions and their economies.
The study was published on January 18 in the journal Scientific Reports.