A disturbance in the Atlantic continues to be watched for possible formation into a tropical storm, but there are multiple scenarios in play when it comes to the track of this system as it nears the Bahamas and the southeastern United States by this weekend.
The tropical wave that might eventually grow into a tropical depression or storm is located over the Leeward Islands, or near the “X” in the graphic below, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After battling dry air for several days, the wave has sprouted increased shower and thunderstorm activity pushing westward through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. That’s one small step the system had to make on its journey to development.
Computer models suggest wind shear may be relatively light, and there’s plenty of warm ocean water ahead of this system to fuel its development near the Bahamas or the Gulf of Mexico. These are both ingredients favorable for development.
However, this rather large tropical disturbance will likely have to interact with land along the way, particularly Hispaniola and Cuba, but also possibly Florida. So, it may take some time for one area of thunderstorms to persist over water, lower surface pressure and begin the process of developing a tropical depression, if that happens at all.