Part of the eastern South China Sea, known in the Philippines as the West Philippine Sea, represents not only a geopolitical flashpoint but also a lifeline for millions of Filipinos. Beneath the heated rhetoric of international diplomacy lies a struggle far closer to home, one that pits the nation’s fisherfolk against not just foreign adversaries but also systemic neglect of its offshore reefs.

Tolomeo Forones, a 70-year-old retired fisherman, vividly recalls the days when Scarborough Shoal was a shared haven for Filipino, Vietnamese, and Chinese fishers. Scarborough shoal is only 24 nautical miles away, or a 12 – 18 hours boat trip. “We used to earn enough to pay debts and sustain our families,” Forones said, his voice tinged with nostalgia. Back then, three-month fishing trips yielded bountiful catches worth up to $705.

That is enough then to pay his cash advances and still have left to last until the next. China since 2012 began tightening its grip on the contested shoal and continues until today, disregarding a landmark 2016 international tribunal ruling that invalidated its sweeping claims. Since then, Filipino fishermen like Forones have faced harassment at sea, often targeted by Chinese patrols. “You work hard for nights, only to have your catch taken away,” Forones lamented. The once-thriving waters are now a dangerous and contested battleground.

Forones, who served as a witness in the case, had hoped the ruling would deter China’s aggression in the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and its extended continental shelf, an area the country calls the West Philippine Sea (WPS). Instead, the opposite occurred. China escalated its presence, dispatching more military surveillance ships and reclaiming islands to establish military bases.

Forones has since adapted, earning a living as a tricycle taxi driver and electrician. But for many younger fishermen, especially those supporting school-age children, diversifying income isn’t an option. They remain tethered to the unpredictable and often perilous seas.

A Bleak Future for Coastal Communities

The South China Sea sustains over 300,000 Filipino fishermen and is estimated to provide one-third of the country’s fish production. Yet, the region’s resources are dwindling as a result of habitat degradation and under the pressure of illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing—most notably by Chinese industrial fleets. Since late 2021, these fleets have intensified incursions into Philippine waters, exacerbating an already dire situation. The economic fallout reverberates not just through coastal towns but across the entire nation, threatening food security and eroding livelihoods.

In Zambales, one of the country’s primary fishing hubs, reef fish catches have plummeted over the past decade. Fisherman Philip Macapanas, for instance, now earns a mere $34 per trip, down from $136 a decade ago. “We’re forced to borrow money just to survive,” he said, highlighting the grim reality of spiraling debt and economic precarity.

Local governments stepped in with limited aid, such as a $119,000 loan program for fishing cooperatives. But the scale of the crisis far outstrips available resources. High-interest loans have become a lifeline for many, even as they plunge fishermen deeper into financial instability.

The psychological toll is equally severe. Harassment at sea has become routine, with stories of physical and emotional abuse emerging from nearly every fishing community. Vessel captain Henrilito Empoc described his plight: “Each trip feels like walking into a trap.” The Peoples Development Institute and the Bigkis Federation, an advocacy group, presented harrowing testimonies of abuse—including forced barefoot marches on sharp coral reefs—during a congressional hearing in June.

Chinese Encroachment and IUU Fishing

Recent reports paint an alarming picture of foreign dominance in Philippine waters. A 2024 study by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) identified 77 Chinese-flagged vessels operating within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zones (EEZs). Many of these ships were linked to IUU fishing activities, contributing to the depletion of local stocks and a 0.02% drop in the country’s GDP between mid-2021 and mid-2022. Over the same period, 17,000 marine jobs disappeared, and 24,000 more Filipinos fell into poverty.

Miren Gutierrez, one of the ODI report’s authors, suggested that these figures may underestimate the true scale of the problem. “IUU fishing is very elusive and hard to detect, and it doesn’t include all the wrongdoing or unethical, unsustainable behavior there is,” she said. Satellite data from Global Fishing Watch showed Chinese vessels frequently loitering near contested territories like the Spratly Islands and the Kalayaan Island Group. These incursions often go unreported, as many foreign ships deactivate their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) upon entering Philippine waters.

She noted that 77 Chinese-flagged vessels, detected in the Philippine EEZ via satellite data and Automatic Identification System AIS signals for ships over 300 gross tons, were most likely fishing. “Otherwise, what were they doing there?” she asked.

“Before 2022, there were very few fishing vessels on AIS detected in the WPS, but this increased starting from November 2021,” according to a report by the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute (UPMSI).

The study noted that the increase in detections is partly due to more vessels adopting AIS in recent years. However, UPMSI warned the data might under-represent the situation, as not all vessels use AIS, some escape satellite detection, and others deliberately turn the system off.   Complicating matters further, Philippine-flagged fishing vessels often avoid AIS, obscuring the full picture of local contributions in the region. Oceana Philippines corroborated these fleet behaviors by night vision detections from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), a satellite instrument that captures light emissions.

It also added that Vessel Monitoring Systems (VMS) should complete the picture because AIS and VIIRS can be cross-referenced and validated using VMS, which currently “stands at approximately 60% installation, highlighting the need for greater enforcement and compliance efforts.”

The Disappearing Bounty of the Sea

Commercial fishing statistics offer a stark illustration of the crisis. In three regions dependent on the West Philippine Sea, such as the National Capital Region, MIMAROPA (Region IV-B, which includes Palawan), and Central Luzon (Region III, which Zambales is part of) total fish production value has steadily declined over two decades. Between 2002 and 2011, these regions contributed $1.45 billion to the national economy. By the following decade, this figure had dropped by 11% to $1.27 billion.

Despite their declining contributions, reef fish remain crucial for these regions. From 2014 to 2023, these species accounted for 15% of MIMAROPA’s total production value, 5.33% for Metro Manila, and 5.11% for Central Luzon. Over the past two decades, their combined contributions to reef fishes have fallen by 40.31%, from approximately $172 million to $101 million.

Adapting to Economic Hardship 

Macapanas and his family of seven have managed to stay afloat despite financial blows by turning to high-interest loans.  A bank loaned them $440 but deducted $88 in fees, leaving an annual repayment of $560. Weekly payments are $11.  His wife, Norma, used a women-focused loan service that came with a savings bundle, enabling them to build a modest concrete house over ten years with the help of his reef fishing income.

Masinloc fishers like Macapanas can still catch fish off Zambales’ coast, but they struggle with mounting debts and fear their children won’t make it to college.  They face constant challenges, including threats at sea for their safety, while devising ways to repay loans.

“Every time they sprayed us with water, we’d back out for a while to hide. We felt like thieves, but we couldn’t leave without recouping our expenses which include P60,000 ($1,000) for diesel and P25,000 ($425) to P30,000($500) for ice,” Macapanas said. He belongs to one of two fishing groups recently supported by Masinloc’s local government, which funded their boats for $27,200 per unit.

Julius Ecijan, head of the Panatag Fisherfolk Association and father of four, faces similar struggles. His debts have climbed to $1,056 to cover his children’s schooling and household needs despite supplementing his fishing income with farming and odd jobs. He claimed that until they settle their outstanding debts, fishers like him who owe financiers money are compelled to sell their catches for less.

Community-based Initiative to Help Scarborough Fishers

Semi-retired fisher Peter Maggay dreams of a brighter future for the next generation, one where they can afford college and pursue professional careers, like his own children, now a nurse and an engineer. Together with Joey Marabe, a Masinloc marine safety advocate, they completed a radio license training in September to improve communication among Scarborough Shoal fishers.

But hurdles remain. Exam results are pending, and their request to enhance a municipal 100-meter tower for better signal range was met with lukewarm support.  They also need funding for high-frequency radio devices.

Henrilito Empoc, a commercial vessel captain, sees the potential. Fishers, he explains, often rely on peers for immediate help, yet access to communication tools remains limited, leaving small-scale fishers at a disadvantage. The stakes are high. Missing payaos—steel floating devices essential for tuna and round scad fishing—have compounded their struggles.

Anchored near the now Chinese-controlled Scarborough Shoal, these devices once served as shields for Filipino fishers. “The effect is huge because one payao carries ten tons of fish. The capital for every fishing trip is roughly two to three hundred thousand pesos. The crew has 37 members. Who will pay them?” Furthermore, Empoc said that no financier would want to sustain loss after loss.His savings, meant for his daughter’s college, are nearly gone.

Legislative and Diplomatic Challenges 

To strengthen their maritime sovereignty, the Philippine government recently enacted two significant laws: the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and the Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act. These measures aim to reaffirm the country’s rights under international law and regulate navigation through its waters. However, critics argue that legislation alone is insufficient.

The National Federation of Fisherfolk Organizations (PAMALAKAYA) dismissed the laws as “redundant and insignificant,” pointing out that they have yet to provide tangible protection for Filipino fishers. Advocacy groups continue to call for more robust enforcement mechanisms and increased investment in coastal communities.The ideal way to resolve this problem is for all ASEAN nations to engage in dialogue with China, according to Rogelio Simbulan, vice president of the Center for People Empowerment in Governance, based in the Philippines.

While the Arbitral Ruling benefited claimant states like Vietnam, Simbulan argues it has strained ASEAN unity. Some members, with close economic ties to China, feel dragged into the dispute,  particularly after the Philippines allowed the installation of a U.S. missile.

Trystanto Sanjaya, a geopolitics student at Rennes School of Business in France, notes ASEAN states’ varied views on the conflict are unsurprising. Still, he believes Southeast Asian claimants should support the Philippines to bolster the ruling’s credibility.   “Consequently, ASEAN is being [held] hostage by its consensus-based decision-making process.” Sanjaya added that the Philippines’ U.S. alignment is expected:  “When your neighbor threatens your house and your other neighbors are silent about your predicament, you will bring in outside help.”