Rising salinity in Bangladesh’s coastal rivers, driven by climate change, is drastically reducing fish stocks, disrupting livelihoods, and exacerbating malnutrition, particularly among children. Urgent policy interventions, including adaptive fisheries management and nutritional support, are needed to mitigate these socio-economic and health impacts.
Researchers from the World Bank, the Institute of Water Modeling (Bangladesh), and World Fish Bangladesh have conducted an in-depth study on the worsening impact of climate change on coastal fisheries in Bangladesh. Rising sea levels and changing freshwater flows are driving increased salinity levels, leading to significant transformations in fish populations, market economics, and public health. The southwest coastal region, particularly areas such as Khulna, Mongla, Sarankhola, Amtali, and Galachipa, has been identified as highly vulnerable. As freshwater sources dwindle, saltwater intrusion is reshaping local ecosystems and forcing fishing communities to adapt to shifting fish availability. This study combines river salinity data with fish sales records to examine the consequences of these environmental changes.
Fishing Under Threat: How Salinity Affects the Catch
The increase in salinity is altering the composition of fish species available in local markets. Some species, like Platycephalus indicus (Bartail flathead), demonstrate resilience and even increased numbers in saltier conditions, while others, including Labeo bata and Arius arius (Catfish), experience sharp declines. Fishermen are adjusting their catch strategies to focus on species that tolerate higher salinity, but this adaptation does not fully mitigate the economic impact, as freshwater fish crucial for lower-income communities are becoming less accessible. The study finds that seasonal fluctuations in salinity play a major role in fish supply, with significant reductions during peak salinity months. These changes have widespread implications for both fishers and consumers, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive measures in the fisheries sector.
Market Disruptions and Price Volatility
Despite declining fish stocks, the study finds that price increases are not uniform across all species. High-value fish such as Spanish mackerel and hilsa experience price spikes, whereas lower and mid-priced fish remain relatively stable. This suggests that wholesalers employ non-price rationing mechanisms, possibly to maintain affordability for consumers. However, this form of rationing does not resolve the underlying issue of declining protein availability for low-income households. As fish stocks shrink due to salinity intrusion, market forces are unable to compensate for the lost supply, exacerbating food security concerns. The findings suggest that without intervention, the economic strain on fishing-dependent communities will continue to grow, making it harder for them to sustain their livelihoods.
Health at Risk: The Nutrition Crisis Intensifies
The decline in fish availability has severe health consequences, particularly for children. Fish is a primary source of protein and essential micronutrients in Bangladesh, and reduced access can lead to malnutrition and stunted growth. Analyzing data from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 2018 and 2022, the study establishes a direct link between peak salinity months and higher child mortality, stunting, and malnutrition rates. Children born in the months of March, April, and May—when salinity levels are at their highest—show significantly higher health risks. In 2018, mortality rates for children born in these months were 25.2% higher than those born in off-peak months, and in 2022, the gap was still evident at 13.3%. Stunting rates also increased, with a 26.5% higher likelihood for children born during peak salinity months in 2022. While overall poverty reduction efforts in Bangladesh have improved child health indicators, the findings suggest that seasonal food insecurity continues to pose a serious risk, particularly in coastal regions.
The Urgent Need for Policy and Adaptation Strategies
Given the far-reaching consequences of rising salinity, the study calls for urgent policy interventions and adaptive strategies to mitigate its socio-economic and health impacts. Improved salinity monitoring and forecasting systems could help fishers anticipate changes and plan accordingly. Encouraging sustainable, saline-resistant aquaculture and alternative livelihoods can provide much-needed economic stability for affected communities. Targeted nutritional support programs, particularly during high-salinity periods, can help bridge the protein gap and prevent malnutrition. Investments in freshwater storage infrastructure, desalination projects, and irrigation improvements are also crucial to safeguarding both fisheries and agriculture from the encroachment of saline water.This research challenges traditional methods of predicting the impact of salinity changes based solely on species-specific tolerance levels. The study demonstrates that fisher behavior, market dynamics, and human adaptation strategies must be factored into assessments of how climate change affects fisheries and food security. By integrating real-world economic and environmental data, the findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of how coastal communities are responding to these challenges. The research has implications not only for Bangladesh but also for other coastal nations facing similar threats from climate change-induced salinity intrusion.With sea levels projected to rise well beyond 2100, even with immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, coastal communities will remain on the frontlines of climate change. This study sheds light on the resilience of these communities and the urgent need for proactive policy measures to mitigate the adverse effects of increasing salinity. Governments, researchers, and local stakeholders must work together to implement strategies that ensure food security, protect livelihoods, and build long-term resilience. The future of Bangladesh’s coastal communities will depend on how effectively these challenges are addressed, making this issue a critical priority for national and global climate adaptation efforts.