Countries and companies could soon begin extracting rare metals used in a range of consumer electronics from the seabed floor on an industrial scale – something that has not previously been allowed under international law.
A new paper, published in npj Ocean Sustainability, analyses the future potential overlap between key fisheries and deep-sea mining in a region of the Pacific Ocean that has been at the centre of the deep-sea mining debate.
The researchers find that three tuna populations are set to increase in this region by an average of 21 per cent by mid-century.
This could result in conflict between the extractive and fishery industries – with risk of “substantial” environmental and economic impacts, the study says.
The findings highlight the “huge number of unknowns” about the possible effects of deep-sea mining on ocean life, an expert who was not involved in the study tells Carbon Brief.
The deep seabed covers about two-thirds of the total ocean floor, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
Spread across parts of the seabed are polymetallic nodules, which contain metals such as copper, nickel and cobalt.
These minerals are used in a range of items, including electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and touchscreens – and are expected to be in high demand in future as the transition to renewable energy continues.
Scraping these metals from the seabed is allowed for research purposes and, as of last month, countries can now technically apply for industrial-scale mining permits on the high seas.
The International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN body responsible for governing mineral and seafloor related activities on the high seas, is currently figuring out mining rules.
ISA discussions are ongoing, with countries split over the pace at which mining should begin. Delegates recently agreed on a new – but not legally binding – target to finalise the mining code by 2025.
Meanwhile, more than 700 ocean scientists and policy experts have signed a statement calling for a moratorium on seabed mining until more information is available on its marine impacts.
The decades ahead “will herald a new seascape for ocean management”, the study says.
The authors raise questions about governance and transparency of the ISA and claim that the practicalities of monitoring and enforcing compliance with mining rules have “received little attention to date at the ISA”.