In a startling revelation, a new study by the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI), under the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), categorised Kerala and Andhra Pradesh as extremely vulnerable to climate change-induced physical hazards.
Using a multi-hazard index (MHI) and considering 14 threshold-based climatic impact-driver (CID) indices, the study paints a grim picture for these southern coastal states, with Kerala emerging as the most flood-prone state and Andhra Pradesh leading in heatwave and cyclone hazards.
The study, titled “Climate Change Hazards Along the Indian Coastal Districts: Spatial Analysis on a Climatic Impact-Driver Framework”, underscored the urgency of addressing climate-induced vulnerabilities along India’s coastline.
Kerala: Battling floods and shoreline changes
Kerala, often referred to as “God’s Own Country,” finds itself battling nature’s fury as it takes the top spot on the flood hazard index (FHI).
With a score of 0.85, the southernmost district of Thiruvananthapuram is particularly vulnerable, displaying extreme severity in flood hazards.
Other coastal districts, including Kozhikode and Kasaragod, are grappling with shoreline changes and sea level rise with Kozhikode classified under the “extremely high severity” category for sea level rise hazards.
The study highlights that northern Kerala, comprising Kasaragod, Kannur, Kozhikode, and Malappuram, is more severely affected by sea level rise and shoreline changes compared to the central and southern districts.
The South First had earlier reported that there are 11 major hotspots, 14 secondary and 39 localised hotspots along the state’s nine coastal districts, according to a study that analysed spatiotemporal trends in sea surge events along Kerala’s coast from 2012 to 2023, identifying critical hotspots that demand urgent attention.
However, the state’s vulnerability to heatwaves and cyclones remains low, offering some respite amidst the looming threats.
Despite Kerala’s relatively lower proneness to heatwaves and cyclones, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have been increasing, exacerbated by erratic monsoonal patterns.
Human-induced factors, including unregulated development, deforestation, and a lack of comprehensive disaster management strategies, further compound these hazards.
Earlier, the Kerala State Action Plan on Climate Change 2023-2030 warned of significant climate risks, including rising temperatures, decreasing annual rainfall in most districts, and an increase in extreme rainfall events.
Projected temperature increases of 1°C to 2°C and district-wise variations in rainfall patterns, with southern districts likely facing post-monsoon deficits and northern districts experiencing surpluses, pose threats to natural resources like fisheries, forests, and water, as well as socio-economic systems such as agriculture and health.
The plan underscored the urgency of adopting sustainable, localized, nature-based adaptation strategies to mitigate losses and safeguard the state from escalating climate impacts.
Andhra Pradesh: Hotspot for heatwaves and cyclones
On the eastern coast, Andhra Pradesh bears the brunt of climate change with the highest overall multi-hazard index score among India’s coastal states.
Heatwaves and cyclones pose the most severe threats, with West Godavari and Vizianagaram districts topping the heatwave hazard index (HWHI) nationally. The study attributes this to the accumulation of heat caused by hot, dehydrated winds from the west and northwest, compounded by a weakening sea breeze.
Cyclone hazards also loom large over Andhra Pradesh, with all coastal districts — barring Vizianagaram— classified under high severity. The geographical positioning of the state, coupled with monsoonal variability and oceanic influences, makes it highly susceptible to these hazards.
Interestingly, while Andhra Pradesh ranks high in heatwave and cyclone hazards, it is relatively less vulnerable to shoreline changes and sea level rise. This provides a contrast to Kerala, highlighting the region-specific nature of climate change impacts.
Shared challenges and alarming trends
The study also sheds light on a larger national trend: the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
According to a World Bank assessment, India is projected to experience extremely rainy conditions and associated hazards every ten years by 2030—events that previously occurred once every century.
This alarming trend is already evident, as a separate study reported that India witnessed extreme weather events on 314 out of 365 days in 2022, leading to the loss of 3,000 lives, destruction of 420,000 homes, and damage to 2 million hectares of farmland.
Another study reported that India experienced extreme weather events almost daily during the first nine months of 2023. During this period, 2,923 people died, nearly two million hectares of crops were destroyed, 80,000 homes were ruined, and over 92,000 animals were killed.
For Kerala, the high flood hazard severity is a pressing concern, with devastating floods in recent years serving as a grim reminder of the state’s vulnerability.
The state’s intricate network of rivers, low-lying terrain, and intense monsoons make it particularly susceptible to flooding. Shoreline changes, driven by rising sea levels and coastal erosion, threaten livelihoods and ecosystems, especially in northern districts.
In Andhra Pradesh, the convergence of heatwaves, cyclones, and floods creates a dangerous trifecta of hazards. The weakening sea breeze and intensifying heatwaves pose health risks and economic challenges, while cyclones disrupt livelihoods and infrastructure.
A call for urgent action
The findings of the CMFRI study underscore the critical need for proactive measures to mitigate climate change impacts in India’s coastal regions. For Kerala, enhancing flood management systems, implementing sustainable coastal development practices, and restoring natural buffers like mangroves are imperative.
Andhra Pradesh, on the other hand, needs targeted interventions to address heatwave and cyclone risks, including heat action plans, improved disaster preparedness, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Both states must invest in community-based disaster management, early warning systems, and climate adaptation policies to protect vulnerable populations. The study also calls for integrating regional climate assessments into governance mechanisms, emphasizing the interconnectedness of climate, biodiversity, ecosystems, and societal factors.
As climate change continues to alter the natural balance, the vulnerability of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh serves as a stark reminder of the challenges ahead. Without immediate and coordinated action, the risks posed by these climatic hazards will only intensify, threatening lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems along India’s coastline.
The climate change hazards along the Indian coastal districts: spatial analysis on a climatic impact-driver framework by Reshma Gills et al., 2024 is available at: https://icsf.net/resources/climate-change-hazards-along-the-indian-coastal-districts-spatial-analysis-on-a-climatic-impact-driver-framework-by-reshma-gills-et-al-2024/