Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday all seven of the climate models it monitors indicate conditions are likely to approach or exceed the El Nino threshold in the second half of 2012.
The El Nino weather pattern is linked to extreme weather around the world including heavy rain and droughts that can hit production of crops and other commodities.
The Australian bureau tracks seven climate models from compatriot meteorology centers around the world, of which five indicate above El Nino conditions, while the remaining two sit on the neutral – neither El Nino or La Nina – and warm border.
While the seven models hint at a return to El Nino, the World Meteorological Organization last week said it still maintains its neutral outlook for the second half of 2012.
The last El Nino was recorded in 2009/10, though was classified weak to moderate.
Thomson Reuters