The El Nino weather phenomenon, characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to persist through the first half of 2024, according to recent forecasts from the United Nations.
This prolonged event is anticipated to cause abnormal rainfall patterns across Latin America, raising concerns for the region’s agricultural sector.
According to a report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Pacific sea surface temperatures have significantly increased in recent months, with more pronounced warming along the South American coast.
The first quarter of 2024 is predicted to bring heavier than usual rainfall to southern cone countries such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico. In contrast, Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname are expected to experience ongoing dry conditions.
The current dry spell affecting Central America is projected to last only until the end of this year.
However, the agricultural sector, encompassing crops, livestock, forests, and fishing, remains particularly vulnerable.
The FAO report highlights that this sector can absorb up to 26% of economic losses during extreme weather conditions and a staggering 82% during droughts.
Key fish species, including anchovies and tuna along the northern coast of Peru and southern Ecuador, are particularly at risk due to the changing weather patterns. Ecuadorian fishermen have already reported a 30% decrease in tuna catches since February.
The El Nino and its counterpart, La Niña, have historically impacted the production of essential crops such as wheat, rice, and corn in Latin America. These crops are highly dependent on raw materials, making them susceptible to changes in weather patterns.
The report also emphasizes that while the region grapples with the effects of El Nino, it is simultaneously dealing with the impacts of climate change, including heatwaves.
In response to these challenges, the FAO has initiated a plan to mobilize financial resources for communities in several countries affected by the extreme weather, aiming to mitigate the impacts and support resilience in these vulnerable areas.