Global fisheries and aquaculture production is projected to increase by 2.2 percent to nearly 192 million tonnes in 2024, with wild catch volumes recovering by 1.1 percent after a poor 2023 influenced by El Niño’s impact on Peruvian anchoveta stocks, according to FAO Globefish, a service from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) that provides information and analysis on markets and trade of fisheries and aquaculture products.
Peru’s 2024 anchoveta quota has been set considerably higher than last year at over five million tonnes. In addition to boosting overall production figures, these catches have greatly improved the availability of marine ingredients for feed, although global fish oil reserves remain low. Similarly, with notable production increases in China, India and Viet Nam, global aquaculture output is expected to grow by 3.1 percent. Feed costs are expected to decrease moving into next year, with forecasts for improved harvests of oil crops and grains, as well as improved supplies of marine ingredients for feed.
Despite a slight 1.0 percent rise in global trade volume, its value is anticipated to decline by 1.2 percent. Demand in major markets has stagnated, with the European Union, China, the United States of America and Japan all projecting an import decline in value terms in 2024. Consumer confidence remains fragile, and economic uncertainty has weakened aquatic animal food consumption. With global inflation rates falling, central banks have been winding down interest rates, likely spelling the end of a period dubbed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as “the great tightening”, which saw the highest costs of borrowing since the 1970s. Despite these positive developments for economies, fish consumption in major markets has faltered somewhat and is likely to continue to face headwinds. The first half of 2024 saw considerable disruption for the industry, as consumers concerned by inflation and rising costs, appear to be disengaging from seafood. This resulted in low growth in consumption and trade, with industry reports pointing to difficult market conditions, particularly in countries such as Norway, Japan, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Germany and the United States.
Following the US elections in November, Donald Trump is set to take office as president for a second term. While it is too early to say exactly what the impact of the changing administration will be on fisheries trade, protectionist trade policy has featured heavily in the president-elect’s campaign rhetoric. Proposals have included a universal baseline tariff of 10 percent on all goods imported into the United States; tariffs of 60 percent on goods imported from China; and calls for a so-called “reciprocal trade act” which would impose equivalent tariffs on countries that levy tariffs on US goods. Reflecting on Donald Trump’s previous tenure in office between 2017–2021, there were increased tariffs and trade tensions, including a notable trade conflict with China that led to reduced seafood trade with the United States. Should similar policies emerge from Donald Trump’s second term, the fisheries sector will face renewed volatility, disrupting and altering global supply chains.
Recent climate events have led to significant disruptions for the fisheries sector. In 2023, the warmer ocean temperatures associated with El Niño affected marine ecosystems, resulting in reduced catches for certain species. This caused global catches to decline, impacting supply chains and contributing to higher prices for a range of commodities. Meanwhile, a recent report published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlined the substantial issues plaguing Alaskan fisheries, which together have led to an estimated 50 percent reduction in profitability between 2021–2023. While the causes are complex, the climatic impacts have been profound and long-lasting. For instance, a severe marine heatwave in 2017 underpinned declines in key species such as cod and crab, affecting the long-term sustainability of these fisheries and the communities that depend on them. Losses in the Alaska seafood sector were estimated at USD 1.8 billion, with a total loss of USD 4.3 billion for US gross domestic product (GDP).