The world’s trade ministers could put the final touches to a historic fisheries deal when they meet in Abu Dhabi later this month, but other landmark agreements will likely prove more elusive.
Several issues remain stuck in the weeds ahead of the World Trade Organization’s biennial ministerial meeting, as anxiety swells over the impact that geopolitical tensions and the looming US elections could have on global trade.
Two years ago at its Geneva headquarters, the WTO’s last major gathering struck deals on fisheries, on Covid vaccine patents and on the need to reform the global trade body itself.
But ahead of the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13), set for February 26-29, trade diplomats admit they are unlikely to break out the champagne.
“It’s going to be a bit of a battle,” said one Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified.
Rashid Kaukab, a professor at the International Institute in Geneva (IIG) business school, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that some deals could be accomplished.
But “no big bang, no solution to everything,” the former Pakistani diplomat told AFP.
“That is not going to be possible.”
Adding to the challenges for those gathering in the United Arab Emirates is the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, where Yemeni rebels’ attacks on vessels are disrupting international shipping.
“The (meeting) will take place in a challenged region of the world,” John Denton, head of the International Chamber of Commerce, told AFP, stressing the need for “strong leadership” from the UAE hosts and WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
Even without such difficulties, reaching agreement on anything is a feat at the WTO, where full consensus is needed to conclude a deal.
Most hope rests on finalizing a historic agreement banning harmful fisheries subsidies, which was reached in 2022 after more than two decades of negotiations.
The agreement banned subsidies that contribute to fishing that is illegal, unreported or unregulated, but it stopped short of outlawing subsidies that contribute to overfishing more broadly.
The initial agreement was aimed at dealing with “the most alarming situations,” explained Tristan Irschlinger at the International Institute for Sustainable Development think-tank.
“What this second wave of negotiations is meant to address… is the root cause,” he told AFP.
Observers said there was a good chance of netting a final fisheries deal at MC13, which would be seen as a big win for the WTO.
But no other major text is on the table.